The aim of this study was to analyze trends in the detection rate of leprosy in children under 15 years of age in Brazil from 2001 to 2016. A time series study used the Prais-Winsten procedure for generalized linear regression analysis, with significance set at 5%. The mean detection rate was 5.77 per 100,000 inhabitants. However, a downward trend was observed in this rate, with an annual percent change (APC) of -5% (95%CI: -6.7; -3.3). There was a downward trend in all regions of Brazil. Among the regions, the North maintained a hyperendemic mean detection rate (≥ 10.00 per 100,000 inhabitants). The time series was downward in 19 states of Brazil. However, many states maintained a hyperendemic mean rate, such as Mato Grosso, Pará, Maranhão, Rondônia, Roraima, Pernambuco, Piauí, and Acre. Among the eight states that maintained a stationary trend, Tocantins had a hyperendemic mean rate during the period analyzed. Of the 24 Brazilian state capitals included in the study, 14 showed downward trends and 10 stationary trends. Despite the downward trend in new cases, some state capitals maintained hyperendemic mean rates (Teresina, Recife, Cuiabá, Boa Vista, Rio Branco, and Belém). Despite stationary trends, the state capital cities Palmas and São Luís recorded hyperendemic mean rates. In conclusion, although the analysis showed a downward trend in Brazil, there were stationary trends and hyperendemicity in some states and in some state capitals, highlighting the persistence of sources of transmissibility and difficulty in eliminating leprosy from the country.
BT - Cadernos de saude publica C1 -http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29538501?dopt=Abstract
C5 -
DO - 10.1590/0102-311X00101817 IS - 3 J2 - Cad Saude Publica LA - por N2 -
The aim of this study was to analyze trends in the detection rate of leprosy in children under 15 years of age in Brazil from 2001 to 2016. A time series study used the Prais-Winsten procedure for generalized linear regression analysis, with significance set at 5%. The mean detection rate was 5.77 per 100,000 inhabitants. However, a downward trend was observed in this rate, with an annual percent change (APC) of -5% (95%CI: -6.7; -3.3). There was a downward trend in all regions of Brazil. Among the regions, the North maintained a hyperendemic mean detection rate (≥ 10.00 per 100,000 inhabitants). The time series was downward in 19 states of Brazil. However, many states maintained a hyperendemic mean rate, such as Mato Grosso, Pará, Maranhão, Rondônia, Roraima, Pernambuco, Piauí, and Acre. Among the eight states that maintained a stationary trend, Tocantins had a hyperendemic mean rate during the period analyzed. Of the 24 Brazilian state capitals included in the study, 14 showed downward trends and 10 stationary trends. Despite the downward trend in new cases, some state capitals maintained hyperendemic mean rates (Teresina, Recife, Cuiabá, Boa Vista, Rio Branco, and Belém). Despite stationary trends, the state capital cities Palmas and São Luís recorded hyperendemic mean rates. In conclusion, although the analysis showed a downward trend in Brazil, there were stationary trends and hyperendemicity in some states and in some state capitals, highlighting the persistence of sources of transmissibility and difficulty in eliminating leprosy from the country.
PY - 2018 EP - e00101817 T2 - Cadernos de saude publica TI - [Leprosy trends in children under 15 years of age in Brazil, 2001-2016]. TT - Tendência da hanseníase em menores de 15 anos no Brasil, 2001-2016 UR - http://www.scielo.br/pdf/csp/v34n3/1678-4464-csp-34-03-e00101817.pdf VL - 34 SN - 1678-4464 ER -